Equitable said they should come down in subsequent

Provisions for credit losses for Equitable’s first quarter were nearly $35.7 million, up from almost $9.7 million a year earlier.National Bank Financial analyst Jaeme Gloyn wrote in a note to clients that Equitable’s first quarter provisions, which were equal to 0.54 per cent of total loans, were nearly three times what they had forecasted.”The company increased provisions in all loan books, primarily on downward revisions to macroeconomic forecasts as well as a material migration to stage 2 loans (performing but significantly increased credit risk) which now make up 24 per cent of the loan book (up from 11 per cent),” Gloyn said.Loan loss provisions are influenced by economic forecasts. Equitable said they should come down in subsequent quarters, barring any worsening of the economic forecast or borrower struggles, as the first quarter allowance for loan losses already reflected its estimate of future expected losses because of those choppy economic conditions.The need for a loan deferral isn’t being taken at the moment as the sign of increased risk of default, and more than 700,000 Canadian customers have opted to defer or skip payments so far, according to the Canadian Bankers Association.While some customers could have lost their jobs and be in true financial distress, others could be looking for “insurance,” Moor said, to try to just preserve some of their savings.”We believe that the longer term impact of these programs will be positive,” Equitable said of its mortgage deferrals in its latest filings. “Some proportion of these borrowers will likely still default but it is too early to determine what the increase in impaired loan balances will be over the course of the year.”A similar warning was issued by the Bank of Canada on Thursday in its latest review of the financial system.Canada’s central bank said the deferrals have helped keep debt servicing costs down for many households, but after the deferral period ends, those costs could rise again..

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