I think they are playing the good guy bad guy routine

China experts divided on country

During the 18th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress in Beijing in October 2012, a major generational change will take place; seven of nine members of the Politburo Standing Committee, in other words the bosses of China, will demit office and go into retirement.

Canada Goose online The most preeminent retirees will be Hu Jintao, Party General Secretary and PRC President (he also holds the crucial post of Chairman of the Central Military Commission) and Wen Jiabao, the Premier of the State Council. They belong to the Fourth Generation leadership. Canada Goose online

uk canada goose The two survivors will be Vice President Xi Jinping (aged 58), who will step in Hu shoes, and First Vice Premier Li Keqiang (aged 56), who will probably replace Wen. It is not the case with India where the political system is based on gerontology. It is a great pity that the land which invented the Four Ashramas is unable to practice what it once taught. uk canada goose

uk canada goose outlet Can you imagine an India where all leaders above 70 years would be forced to take sanyasa (or at least go into retirement)? It would bring a great deal of new energy into Indian politics and probably new ideas and new ideals. Unfortunately, this will not happen soon. uk canada goose outlet

Canada Goose sale This apart, India should carefully watch the changes in Beijing. To paraphrase Mao, will the Wind blow from the East or from the West in 2012? Canada Goose sale

The West Wind is associated with reforms and a more democratic system of governance, while the East Wind symbolizes the Dictatorship of the Party (unfortunately not of the Proletariat!).

This can be considered to be the main challenge of canada goose outlet mall the 2012 turn over because the direction of the Wind in the Middle Kingdom will have planetary consequences.

China is going to witness a transition, but a transition towards what?

Canada Goose Coats On Sale It is what Willy Lam tried to find out in his essay on the Sixth Generation of leaders (Changing of the Guard: Beijing grooms Sixth Generation cadres for 2020′s published by the Jamestown Foundation). The Sixth Generation should assume power around 2020 (if nothing more dramatic occurs before). Canada Goose Coats On Sale

Canada Goose Jackets One of the key players is Li Yuanchao, the present Chief of the CCP Organization Department, responsible for the selection of senior cadres. Canada Goose Jackets

canadian goose jacket Willy Lam points out: he was vice party secretary and party secretary of Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2007, Li Yuanchao made a name for himself for broadening democracy especially the selection of canada goose uk site cadres through means including popular assessment and recommendation. After becoming Director of the CCP Organization Department in October 2007, however, Li has shifted his attention from human resources theories to the time honored, Confucianist preoccupation with recruiting virtuous cadres canadian goose jacket

canada goose uk shop He once told local officials that his first priority was to pick “people who are ambitious, who want to do good things, who are capable and who will not make a big mess.” canada goose uk shop

Li primary concern is that cadres groomed for fast track promotion should pass muster in both and with priority given to ‘morality’.

Apart from ‘morality’, the new leadership https://www.canadagoosejacketsoutsale.com will have to face the issue of ‘democracy’; let us not forget that Liu Xiaobo, the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize is still in jail. He was cheap canada goose the initiator of the Charter 08, a text signed by 300 prominent intellectuals, suggesting the introduction of some democratic reforms into the opaque one party system of China.

canada goose store In the years to come, China is bound to witness new demands for the ‘fifth modernization’ dear to the intellectuals who wrote large posters on the Democracy Wall of the Tiananmen Square in 1979 (Deng Xiaoping had then spoken of Four (economic) Modernizations). canada goose store

A few months ago, China witnessed an interesting debate: is Wen Jiabao, sincere or putting on a show when he speaks of democratic reforms? Due to the extreme opaqueness canada goose outlet factory of the regime in Beijing, are divided on the question. In an interview with BBC’s Chinese service, Yu said: “Wen Jiabao and Hu Jintao are like the two sides of a coin. They are on a tandem bike, heading in the same direction. I think they are playing the good guy bad guy routine, like the harsh dad loving mum sort of thing.

In another interview, he affirmed: and Wen] share the same goal, which is to strengthen their power base.”

When the question was asked to Du Daozheng, director of the editorial board at Yanhuang Chunqiu magazine (former Chinese edition of Asiaweek), he replied: my view [Wen] has always worked tirelessly for opening and reform. In terms of action, among the highest level leaders in the Central Committee, he has not only made his position clear, but he has also worked very hard. His style and manner are about closeness and service to the people. is also a living person, canada goose outlet ottawa with his own thread of life This is not on a show in Krugman case, specialists do not agree. We will probably have to wait a few years to know who the real Wen was, but the fact that the Chinese Premier is being censored in his own country is nevertheless worrisome.

The South China Morning Post cited a speech in Shenzhen on August 21, 2011 and another one in the United Nations General Assembly on September 23 when Wen words canada goose stockists uk about reforms were suppressed in China.

Living in a democracy, it is difficult to imagine a Prime Minister not being free to speak canada goose outlet legit his mind or having portions of his speeches deleted by an all powerful Publicity Department.

In the 2012 succession race, one should not forget another factor: the People Liberation Army. In canada goose outlet edmonton recent months, the Army has shown that it can influence China foreign policy; we have seen it for policies vis a vis the US, Korea or Japan. The PLA clique will probably fight hard against the introduction of ‘political’ reforms.

Will a woman make it to the man dominated Standing Committee?

We will have to wait to know.

In July, in the front page of The People Daily, one could see President Hu Jintao shaking hands with military scholars; third in the handshake line was Liu Yandong, a member of the State Council, the only female member of the 25 member Politburo. Many watchers started to canada goose outlet jackets speculate, can she make it?

Another Politburo member who believes in his luck is Bo Xilai, Chongqing mayor, who has recently been in the news for his campaign to revive Mao Zedong spirit through mass renditions of old revolutionary songs according to the Wall Street Journal, while Bo Senior was ordering students and officials to work in farms to with the countryside his 23 year old son, Bo Guagua was canada goose outlet in uk spotted one evening entering the US ambassador’s residence in Beijing with a red Ferrari. Bo Junior had been invited for a dinner by a daughter of the then ambassador, Jon Huntsman.

This is one of the contradictions of modern China.

The leadership change in Beijing will also affect the fate of the so called nationalities, in the first place, the Tibetans and the Uyghurs. The recent transfer of Zhang Qingli, the tough Han official who masterminded the repression in the Tibetan Autonomous Region after the March/April 2008 unrest, was for many a rehearsal for the 2012 changes.